Peak Oil: We’re gonna run out of oil and then WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
I saw Mark’s entry about this and I must voice my concern. The sentiment of certain “experts” is that we are going to run out of oil in 2025 or so and then we’re going to “go back to the Stone Age”.
I don’t share their pessimism. Here’s why.
While I won’t argue the amount of oil we have left, I can say with confidence that we’re not going to all suddenly go to our respective local petrol stations one day and find big “SOLD OUT” signs on all the pumps. What’s going to happen is petrol prices are going to increase between now and then, like it already is, until nobody can afford it.
This is important because when petrol does start to become expensive, the free market will kick in and work properly to come up with alternatives for transport (and other things) for us. In about the time we have, the Internet was turned from something localised to the defense industry and a few universities into a global network that everyone has already gotten bored of.
It’s already happening - we’re seeing prototype hybrid, electric, hydrogen and biofuel cars already. It’s just that they’re not being mass produced or heavily developed yet because nobody really wants them yet.
The view of these “experts” seems to be that none of these alternatives are viable, for one reason or another. I’ll avoid getting into the details for now and just say that their views tend to ignore current and future developments in the different technologies. I’ve read into some of the stuff that’s being developed, and some of it is pretty impressive and encouraging. Yet the doomsayers blurt out things like “electric cars use batteries and batteries suck”, “hyrdogen can explode”, etc etc. and seem convinced that this closes their argument.
Now when petrol starts to become properly expensive, entrepreneurs will start putting some serious money into developing these alternatives, and things will start moving.
Yes, there are other things to consider, i.e. oil isn’t used just for petrol - it’s used for cleaning agents, plastics etc. But the same free market rules apply. I imagine we will figure out a way to synthesize most of these other materials, if we haven’t already.
So yeah, there will be some friction while we figure out how to live without oil. But it won’t be with a new Stone Age or Armageddon.
nice post, have a cookie WHERE cookie = comment;
Comment by ctd — February 19, 2006 @ 9:27 pm
You’ll find oil is used in the production of batteries, too. Also, you’ll find that battery electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles are almost always recharged using electricity derived from non-renewable sources. For example, electricity plants that burn coal or hybrid engines that use combustion to recharge the batteries.
It’s just not that simple. What’s most important is the reduction of what is known as “total environmental impact”. The entire lifecycle of a product is important and, at the moment, people don’t tend to look that far … people hear rechargeable battery or solar panels and think that the world is saved.
On a related note, I’d be very interested in knowing the ratio of oil consumption between areas of industry (automotive, consumer electronics, food, etc). I wonder if automotive is even that large a slice of the pie…
Comment by knet — March 22, 2006 @ 5:07 pm
Yeah, oil’s outputs are used for a whole bunch of things, like I said.
What I was getting across is not so much “everything’s going to be just fine”, as much as “we’re not simply doomed when the oil runs dry”.
Just because oil is involved in the production of batteries doesn’t mean it’s the only way they can be made. Just because electricity is msotly produced with coal doesn’t mean that’s the only way it can be produced.
I was restricting my opinion to economical effects. From an environmental POV, I’m more or less looking forward to the oil running out (as long as it’s not instantaneous, which it won’t be). The talk about pulling another 100-500 years worth of oil out of shale scares me more than the economics of it. With a little luck, shale oil will remain expensive enough so that the economy will produce other forms of transport, but so that the other things oil is used for, the ones that don’t have nearly as much of an environmental impact, are still cheap enough.
From reading some forums and so on I’ve noticed two common lines of thought that don’t really help. One, people think that the way things are done now are the only way they can be done. This can be whittled down to the basic “seeing is believing” thing and its obvious corollary. Two, if such people are presented with an alternative to an entrenched technology or whatever, they point out the issues with the alternative, and forget to offset them with the issues with what it’s meant to replace. I’ve seen someone complain about all the extra junk that has to go into an electric car and forget the junk that’s already in there, and I’ve seen a guy dismiss hydrogen as too dangerous, as if fuel isn’t, and as if the dangers can’t be contained and minimised.
In the longer term it sure would be nice if any government ANYWHERE cared at ALL about the total environmental impact you speak of, and at least make some attempt to minimise it. Some interesting figures I’ve found in my travels:
If you find any figures about oil consumption and such let me know, I’m interested too.
Comment by Micksa — March 26, 2006 @ 8:59 pm
It’s very difficult to debate peak oil without an actual knowledge of global oil reserves. It makes sense to assume that if we continue using up current oil reserves we are going to face a shortage at some point. For the last few years oil prices have been rising steadily. This should be some indication that we are approaching the end of the oil age. As a result, many people are seeking alternative energy resources to help cushion the impact. While this process is slow, hopefully it will gain momentum and we will transition smoothly into the down-side of the peak oil curve.
The above links are archived news pages about related topics. For more online information and articles about peak oil and energy alternatives, please visit the following peak oil resources and alternative energy resources. We need to spread awareness and hope about future energy possibilities as there is still not enough exposure in the mainstream media on these topics.
Comment by Peak Oil News — May 27, 2006 @ 4:17 pm